Research

Since 1985, NAI Carolantic Realty, Inc. has continued to conduct the most comprehensive Triangle-wide commercial real estate survey. All aspects of the market are researched, and we present our findings to over 1,800 business leaders at our Annual Triangle Commercial Real Estate Conference held at the beginning of each year. Business professionals throughout the Triangle are provided with in-depth facts and figures on the current and future state of the market. Data is collected on office buildings, retail space, business parks, and industrial space. We track and publish data covering in excess of 265 million square feet of floor space from over 8,000+ buildings located throughout the Triangle. Existing space, vacancy rates, absorption, new construction, and planned construction are researched.

NAI Carolantic's Real Estate Conference further emphasizes the firm's position, knowledge, and experience in the markstraetplace. We believe this collection of data provides us with information pertinent to a successful tegy for the disposition of assets owned or controlled by our clients.


2019 Forecast and Category Summaries:

2019 Investor Outlook for Land

  • Central Business District land values are hitting a record high well over $100 prsf
  • Current low office vacancy is driving interest in well-located, zoned office sites
  • Retail land sales are slowing
  • Ground zero industrial land sites are in high demand but are limited and expensive
  • Industrial sites in outlining areas are getting attention
  • Hotel developers are active and looking for well-located sites New residential developers continue to enter the market driving land prices up
  • Zoned and entitled land is valued at a premium
  • Many great opportunities in surrounding counties

2019 Investor Outlook for Income Property

  • Investors face some challenges in 2019 with rising interest rates, higher construction costs, retailers downsizing and office co-working concerns
  • The industrial market is the most attractive segment with rising rental rates, favorable landlord lease terms and low cap rates
  • Regional retail malls and power centers are the least popular product type
  • Smaller, local investors face challenges relative to achieving their desired returns
  • Money is still available
  • Despite new challenges, expect another strong year of transactions and sales volume

Summary: NAI Carolantic’s research showed area-wide vacancy in the office category declined slightly from 10% in 2017 to 9% in 2018. The multipurpose category—which includes warehouse, industrial and flex space— also dropped from 9% in 2017 to 7% in 2018. Shopping center vacancy increased slightly from 3% in 2017 to 4% in 2018.  The office category expects approximately 2.4 million square feet to be constructed in 2019, and multipurpose looks for 1.6 million square feet of new construction.  Shopping centers have just over one million square feet underway, with most being built in the West Raleigh, North Raleigh submarkets.

Absorption was generally positive in 2018 with the office category improving to 3% in 2018 up from 2% in 2017.  The multipurpose category improved to 3% absorption in 2018 over 1% in 2017. Shopping centers dropped from 1% to 0% in 2018, the lowest in the past 10 years.